generation reliability assessment in power pool market using intelligent systems and monte carlo simulation

deregulation policy has caused some changes in the concepts of power systems reliability assessment and enhancement. in this paper, generation reliability is considered, and a method for its assessment using intelligent systems is proposed. also, because of power market and generators’ forced outages stochastic behavior, monte carlo simulation is used for reliability evaluation. generation reliability, merely focuses on interaction between generation complex and load. therefore, in this research, based on market type and its concentration, reserve margin, and various future times, a neuro-fuzzy system is proposed for evaluation of generation reliability which is valid and usable for all kinds of power pool markets. finally, the proposed method is assessed on ieee-reliability test system; and generation reliability indices of various markets are evaluated with different reserve margins and different load levels.